Integrated Evaluation and Scenario Simulation for Forest Ecological Security of Beijing Based on System Dynamics Model

Forest Ecological Security (FES) means coordinated development of forest ecosystems, social economies, and the forest environment. In this paper, we evaluate FES in Beijing under different designed scenarios using a dynamic systems model and find that first, the initial FES index value (in Scenario 0) increased to its highest level of 0.529 in 2012, but declined slightly to 0.485 by 2020. Second, in Scenarios 1–4, the FES index value reached 0.545, 0.516, 0.585 and 0.637 respectively in 2020, which was enhanced in varying degrees when compared with Scenario 0. The simulation shows the implementation of forest management policies, socioeconomic development and environmental management combine to affect the FES in Beijing. The FES could develop into a good state when the productivity of forest resources, the stability of forest environments and the orderly development of the social economy are carefully maintained (in Scenario 4). This research could provide decision-making in support of the overall improvement of forest conditions while promoting sustainable forestry in Beijing.